Virus concerns mount. Stocks opened slightly lower this morning as COVID-19 spread has increased concerns that the economic recovery may be knocked off track by additional restrictions and changing consumer behavior.
- The S&P 500 Index is poised for its third straight decline.
- Asian markets were mixed overnight, with China a standout to the upside.
- European markets were lower in midday trading.
Jobless claims higher than expected. After several weeks of improvement, weekly jobless claims spiked (source: US Department of Labor).
- 742,000 Americans filed for unemployment insurance, above Bloomberg estimates for 700,000.
- Continuing claims beat estimates, coming in at 6.37 million versus estimates of 6.4 million.
- The rise in jobless claims comes as several areas of the country begin to tighten restrictions amid rising COVID-19 cases.
Global growth momentum starting to wane. Global leading economic indicators (LEI) improved month over month from May through October as countries re-opened. However, “lockdown 2.0” with fresh restrictions in Europe and the United States is threatening the near-term outlook. A double-dip recession in Europe is possible, while US growth may stall while we wait for vaccines. We look at high-frequency economic indicators in Europe to gauge the effects of the latest round of COVID-19 lockdowns in the LPL Research blog.
Technical update. Stocks closed at session lows on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 moving from a slight gain at the open to a more than 1.1% loss. The energy sector’s 2.9% loss led to the downside, but all 11 sectors were lower on the day. The S&P 500 fell back below its September highs, closing at 3567, and will look to remain above last week’s low print of 3511 as we head into the final two days of this week.
COVID-19 news. Case growth in the United States continued to slow as the 13.7% week-over-week increase was the second smallest in November; the 25.7% increase in the seven-day average was the slowest in two weeks (source: COVID Tracking Project).
- Hospitalizations rose 35% week over week, pushing the seven-day average 18.6% higher.
- Deaths in the United States attributed to COVID-19 have surpassed 250,000.
- New York City public schools have temporarily moved to full-time remote learning.
- AstraZeneca’s vaccine candidate showed strong immune response in older adults in an early study.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change.
References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities.
All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
All index and market data are from FactSet and MarketWatch.
This Research material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC.
Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial (LPL), a registered investment advisor and broker-dealer (member FINRA/SIPC).
Insurance products are offered through LPL or its licensed affiliates. To the extent you are receiving investment advice from a separately registered independent investment advisor that is not an LPL affiliate, please note LPL makes no representation with respect to such entity.
- Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency
- Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed
- Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations
- May Lose Value
For Public Use – Tracking 1-05081285